EUR/CHF, A History, Market Betting on Floor Hike: November 2011
Rumour Of A Softer KOF Swiss Leading Indicator… Expected 0.63 vs previous 0.80, but the number now being touted is 0.35 EUR/CHF is getting a leg up on this around 1.2283 now from 1.2260 earlier By...
View ArticleEUR/CHF, Market betting on Floor Hike, December 2011
Four Trades For 2012: #2 Sell The Swiss Franc I bought EUR/CHF shortly after the 1.20 peg was introduced and have held it ever since. My only regret has not been trading the range more aggressively. At...
View ArticleEUR/CHF, A History, Market Betting on Floor Hike: January 2012
1.2034 The EUR/CHF Low As Risk-Off Resumes 1.2025 barrier supposedly in play while the 1.2000 peg below will act as a magnet if broken. There is something about the forex mindset that prompts markets...
View ArticleEUR/CHF, A History, Market Betting on Floor Hike: February 2012
EUR/CHF Busy Doing Jack; Jordan Gobbing Off Later EUR/CHF sits at 1.2048, some 7 pips easier from when I started out. Barrier option interest sits at 1.2025 and ofcourse 1.2000. SNB interim head honcho...
View ArticleEUR/CHF, A History, Market Betting on Floor: March 2012
Nomura Touts EUR/CHF Longs Strategists there advise going long around the current levels, they say the floor will not break. They target 1.24. I have to agree. To me, it’s a question of buying low or...
View ArticleEUR/CHF, A History, The Game Changes: April 2012
EUR/GBP: If You Want To Know Why Its Falling, Have A Look At The SNB Thanks Goose for the reminder that the SNB released figures on its FX reserves holdings and these showed a marked increase in GBP...
View ArticleEUR/CHF, A History of Interventions: May 2012
FT A Wee Bit Late To The Party… Notices Europeans have been buying Swiss francs and dollars. Who knew? By Jamie Coleman || May 30, 2012 at 19:43 GMT AUD/USD, NZD/USD Dragged Higher As EUR Recovers As...
View ArticleEUR/CHF, A History of Interventions: What markets say, June 2012
SNB In A Bind With Euro Holdings Today’s reserve data showed skyrocketing reserves at the Swiss National Bank as they defend the EUR/CHF floor. Reserves were at 365B francs at the end of Q2 compared to...
View ArticleEUR/CHF, A History of Interventions: What markets say, July 2012
More Chatter About The EUR/CHF Peg The FT reports that Switzerland is ‘new China’ in currencies Chatter that the SNB was buying 3 billion francs worth of euros per day. “The picture is one of a central...
View ArticleHow former central bankers stepped up against the central banks
There are already three former European central bankers who criticize more or less openly the European Central Bank (ECB).
View ArticleOrder the Full Report on the S&P Critique
In the full report we explain in detail how one can analyze the balance sheet of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) based on several sources of information, for example the monthly bulletin, which shows...
View ArticleSNB Monetary Policy Assessment Outlook
On Thursday, December 13th, 2012, at 09.30 CET, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) holds its quarterly monetary policy assessment meeting. As we explained in the “drivers of Swiss inflation” post, inflation...
View ArticleHistory: The Lost 1980s Decade in Latin America
Peripheral Europe is going to follow step and step the Mexican and the resulting Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s.
View ArticleThe history of wrong forecasts by Swiss economists: details
Or how to talk down an economy with wrong forecasts Read the introductory post here, if you haven’t yet. Details of SECO forecasts In the following we give the details about the SECO, the Swiss...
View ArticleHow to Spot and Avoid an Investment Bubble
Investment "bubbles" have been inflating and bursting for hundreds of years.
View ArticleStrong Dollar: the Parallels Between Now, the 1980s and 1998-2002, Part 1:...
We examine the relationship between strong dollar phases and austerity in other parts of the world. Between 1983 and 1985 one reason for the strong dollar were high real interest rates in the U.S....
View ArticleWhy There Won’t Be A Strong Dollar, Even If The Financial Establishment...
In this second part of our series we provide arguments why the widely expected strong dollar period might not come. We look at the most important economic indicators that might justify a stronger...
View ArticleOverlending and Global Imbalances in Current Accounts
Some extracts from BIS Working Papers No 419 Caveat creditor: The Bank for International Settlement stresses the importance of getting "overlending" under control.
View ArticleHistory of Wrong Forecasts by Swiss and Fed Economists: Update September 2013
Or how to talk down and how to talk up an economy with wrong forecasts American and Swiss mentalities are very different, the Americans have the tendency not to care about the future a lot, the...
View ArticleThe Collapse of the Bretton Woods System, the German Current Account and Gold...
German, Swiss and Japanese gold reserves rose continously in the Bretton Woods system, whereas American and British reserves fell.
View ArticleThe “Cost-Push Inflation” Myth and the 1970s Stagflation
Economists commonly explain rising oil price between 1998 and 2008 with the growth of emerging markets. We argue that the cost-push inflation of the 1970s was also a reflection of rising global demand.
View ArticleOfficial Eurostat Trade Balance Massively Distorted by UK Sales Of 1464...
Somebody who follows regularly the trade balance figures from Eurostat, may have noticed a sentence that was repeated in each monthly release from the Eurostat trade statistics in 2013: “The EU28 trade...
View ArticleFinancial Cycles History, 1998-2002: The Dotcom Bubble and Bust and European...
In this post we present financial and credit cycles in the history: Due a weak credit cycle, Germany was a weak economy under many other weak ones.
View ArticleFinancial Cycles History, 1990-1996: Breakdown of Communism, German...
A history of financial cycles: 1990-1996 the breakdown of communism leads to a boom in Germany and - due to high interest rates and inflation - to a breakdown of the European monetary system.
View ArticleFinancial Cycles History, 1978-1985: Oil Glut, Strong Dollar and the Lost...
The next financial cycle takes from 1981 to 1990: The dollar was strong, Latin America lost a decade and the Japanese created their bubble.
View ArticleFinancial Cycles History: 1945-1966: Bretton Woods, strong growth in Europe
The Bretton Woods time from 1945 to 1966 was a period of strong growth, especially in country like Germany, France, Italy and Japan.
View ArticleBusiness Cycles
The typical backstops of all improvements in business cycles are high oil prices and inflation. Inflation is mostly caused by local effects.
View ArticleFinancial Cycles History, 1991-1998: Overspending in Germany, Asia and former...
In this post we present financial and credit cycles in the history: Due a weak credit cycle, Germany was a weak economy under many other weak ones.
View ArticleA Little History of Wages, Inflation, Treasuries and the Fed – And What We...
On this page we show that Inflation expectations and wages drive the behaviour of the Fed and Treasury bond yields. Excessive wage increases lead to recessions, more or less voluntarily caused by...
View ArticleThe All In One Economic History Chart
It was tweeted out and annotated by James Plunkett and it's based on a chart from inequality economist Branko Milanovic.
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